Serious Statistical Research on Major League Baseball
- Providing Research Material Since 2001 -
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Handling the Human Element in any Formula
In July 2004, we had to send this email message to our subscribers about handling
the many heartbreaking losses we endured with our Dogs Formula during the 2004 Season. We had lost
a lot of final inning and extra inning games.
With any formula, you can be on the right side, but you can't account for the human element of the players/managers,
and just plain bad luck. In 2004, we had what seemed like a disproportionate amount of hard luck losses
with our Dogs Formula:
Baseball Subscribers,
We can't express our level of frustration over what happened today in the Chicago Cubs' loss. We know that franchise is cursed, but c'mon.
The Cubs knocked out Matt Morris in the 2nd inning, and quickly built a 6 run lead. Then, we were absolutely stunned to see that St. Louis came back and won 11-8, after Chicago was up 8-2.
We've said it before and we'll say it again. Dusty Baker is the most overrated manager in baseball. The guy is just a flat out moron with that bullpen.
Multiple times he has burned us this season by bringing in Kyle Farnsworth, who just gets eaten up by St. Louis.
But we've seen Baker blow games for us time and time again this season with asinine bullpen moves.
For our overseas customers, you might be interested in knowing that there is a supposed curse
over the Cubs' organization that goes back to the 1930s. You might want to do a search on
the Internet to read all about it. It's fascinating stuff.
A cable television network here in the United States (The Travel Channel) had a program
about the Top 10 biggest curses. And, sure enough, the famous "Curse of the Billy Goat" (the Curse on the Chicago Cubs)
was ranked #1. It was ranked EVEN HIGHER than the world famous curse of the Hope Jewel, where
every owner of the world famous Hope Diamond (which his now in the Smithsonian Institute) died an
incredibly tragic death soon after becoming owner the jewel. Amazingly, the Curse of the Billy Goat was ranked
#1 as the biggest curse even BEFORE the Cubs had their most famous
cursed event ever in the playoffs against the Florida Marlins. That Travel Channel show aired before that famous Cubs meltdown in the 2003 Playoffs.
But getting back to our main point, we have lost so many heartbreaking games this season, it is amazing
we are up the amount of units that we are. There was a stretch in April where we lost final inning or
extra inning comebacks once every couple days for a few straight weeks. And now, we're getting bitten
again by such heartbreaking losses with the Mets last night and the Cubs today.
Know that we get more upset about these losses than you do. With any formula, there is a human element
with the players and managers that you just can't control. Unfortunately, there's just nothing you can
do in such cases.
We're not making excuses. We're just letting you know that we don't take these losses lightly. They hurt. We'll
take one of those 9-0 blowout losses any day over a heartbreaking loss. We can forget about the blowouts. The heartbreakers just eat at you.
Cheers,
The Baseball Formula Team
The best way to play the Dogs Formula is play it consistently at 1 unit per play. Subscribers receive detailed instructions
on how to best play the formula when they subscribe. Included are money management recommendations.
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