MLB Betting System for MLB Underdog Picks
In this article, we offer suggestions on creating a winning MLB betting system for MLB picks. We will focus on MLB underdog betting systems, since that is
our area of expertise.
To review why we recommend that you focus more on underdogs, rather than favorites, read this article:
MLB Underdog Win Percentage
As you can see by reviewing that article, if you focus on playing favorites, you will need a much
higher win percentage to profit over time. This becomes extremely difficult to do, regardless of your experience level.
MLB Underdog System Strategy #1:
Beware of the free MLB underdog systems floating around
on the Internet. These include situational plays, such as:
Play underdogs in April, play home dogs after a road trip,
focus on underdogs in divisional matchups, play the underdog after getting swept
in the previous head-to-head series, etc., etc.
The problem with these systems is that, while some may have a winning percentage over the course of
several years, these systems have individual seasons where they don't work much at all. So, they are hit or miss.
For that reason, they don't get an endorsement.
We recommend building sophisticated MLB betting systems, rather than playing a blind system based on simplistic rules.
By the way, a popular "blind system" for playing underdogs is to avoid playing dogs when they have lost three straight
games or when the opponent has won three straight games. That system doesn't work consistently from season to season. In fact,
in 2007 and 2011 in particular, it would have lost you a lot of units.
The problem with an underdog system like this is that in particular seasons, it can win big. So, a rookie player can catch it
on a good season and mistakenly think it is a consistent long-term winning MLB system. It isn't. And a bad season
can lose a lot of profits made in a previous season.
MLB Underdog System Strategy #2:
Use filters when playing underdogs. For the vast majority of MLB seasons,
if you played every underdog every day, you would have lost a considerable amount of units at the end of the season. We know this
because we have been tracking the performance of overall underdogs for the past several MLB seasons. We have records dating back to 2001.
That being the case, you need to have a baseball betting system that filters out particular games. It's the filters
and the system that give you the MLB daily picks. If you're just guessing which game to play from day to day,
that is not a system. And guessing or playing with random picks are not sound strategies.
Some examples of filters include not playing road underdogs that have poor road records, or facing an opponent
that has a very high home win percentage, not playing underdogs when facing ace starting pitchers, not playing
underdogs that have a poor record versus lefties, not playing underdogs that have unusually long odds (such as +250 on up),
not playing underdogs that have a poor overall win percentage, etc., etc.
These are just examples of garden variety filters - use your own research.
MLB Underdog System Strategy #3:
Once you think you have a winning MLB betting system,
you need to backtest that system for performance from previous seasons.
It is tempting to jump right in with a new system of MLB picks, but this is a mistake. From our experience,
the odds that you will come up with a winning MLB betting system that is a long-term winning formula are quite slim.
So, it is wise to backtest any idea you have first.
Unless you are an experienced player who is excellent at MLB handicapping,
it is strongly suggested that you test any system before playing it with real cash. The Wall Street crowd
calls this 'paper trading,' when referring to stock trading systems. Testing with paper bets
before playing with hard-earned cash can save you from big losses.
There are several sites on the Internet where you can find daily scores and odds from previous MLB games and seasons. A quick
search will pull up some helpful sites.
On a side note, be cautious and skpetical when coming across so-called mlb expert picks, MLB best bets, and free MLB picks. If their
baseball picks are free, you have to wonder how good the picks are.
MLB Underdog System Strategy #4:
Properly manage your bankroll and know your limits. This is critical to having
a profitable season.
While one of our very successful MLB underdog systems utilizes both one and two unit plays, for most players,
it is recommended that you play each game with a steady unit (no more than 2% of your bankroll).
Example, if you have at $5,000
bankroll for a season, that would mean that each underdog play would be risking no more than $100 per play.
A conservative approach can help you manage your bankroll through the long season when there are bound to be
some rough patches and extended losing streaks.
Poor bankroll management can doom any otherwise successful system. And remember, when playing underdogs, your risk
of having losing streaks is greater. You must be able to survive the bad streaks with proper money management.
Be disciplined. Yeah, you've heard this before...but have you practiced the art of discipline when it
comes to betting? Fewer than 1 in 10 bettors can be disciplined day after day - disciplined enough to stick
with a winning baseball betting system, and disciplined enough to properly manage their bankroll.
Get our MLB underdog picks here.
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