MLB Underdog Win Percentage
There is a definite advantage in playing baseball underdogs!
In the NFL and the NBA, against the standard 11/10 wagering odds against the spread, you have to win 52.4% just to
break even. That might sound easy, but few people can breakeven on such odds in the long run.
The beauty of playing underdogs in Major League Baseball is that we can hit less than 50% and make a very
good profit.
Given that it is difficult to profit in the NFL and the NBA at 11/10 odds over the long haul, imagine
how difficult it is to profit in Major League Baseball over the course of a season, when playing favorites day
in and day out. Consider the breakeven percentages for the following odds in baseball:
Moneyline
Favorite |
Breakeven
Percentage |
|
Moneyline
Favorite |
Breakeven
Percentage |
| -110 |
52.38% |
|
-200 |
66.66% |
| -125 |
55.55% |
|
-225 |
69.23% |
| -150 |
60.00% |
|
-250 |
71.42% |
| -175 |
63.63% |
|
-300 |
75.00% |
However, with underdogs in baseball, our Dogs Formula is guaranteed a profit even on days when it just hits 50%. Consider
an actual day of plays for our Dogs Formula on May 8, 2004:
Our Dogs Formula's plays (wagering 1 unit per play) are in CAPS:
PHILADELPHIA +122 @ Arizona (won +1.22 units)
SAN FRANCISCO +105 @ Cincinnati (lost -1 unit)
MINNESOTA +188 @ Oakland (won 1.88 units)
DETROIT +158 @ Texas (lost -1 unit)
On this day, we went 2-2 (50% winning pct.), yet our profit was still 1.00 units (+ $100 for those wagering 1 steady unit at $100 per play)
Now imagine if you had taken the favorites in those games. Here's how you would have fared (again, wagering 1 unit per play):
Philadelphia @ ARIZONA -125 (lost -1 unit)
San Francisco @ CINCINNATI -115 (won .87 units)
Minnesota @ OAKLAND -215 (lost -1 unit)
DETROIT +158 @ TEXAS -178 (won .56 units)
Playing the favorites in those same games, you would have lost .57 units (- $57 for those wagering 1 steady unit at $100 per play)
Now, imagine if on that same day (May 5, 2004), you played some of the heavy favorites - the games that others might
tell you are 'locks.' Here's is how you would have fared for that day:
Tampa Bay @ ANAHEIM -240 (won .41 units)
NY YANKEES -149 @ Seattle (won .67 units)
Colorado @ CHICAGO CUBS -260 (lost -1 unit)
In this example, you would have gone 2-1 (67% winning pct.) and still would have only won .08 units (+ $8 for those
wagering 1 steady unit at $100 per play) playing the favorites.
So, on this day, our Dogs Formula won $100 in profits by going 2-2 (50%), and in our example, you would have won just $8 despite
going 2-1 (67%) that day wagering on some teams that were 'locks.'
We're obviously more concerned with profit rather than winning percentage. And, in playing dogs, it requires a much
lower winning percentage to profit over time. The chart below shows the winning percentages that are needed to breakeven
in playing dogs at various moneylines.
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Breakeven Percentages for Underdogs
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As the chart shows, a much lower winning percentage is needed to profit when playing underdogs in baseball, as compared with playing favorites. Over time,
it is much easier to profit, but only if you have a solid system for playing underdogs.
Moneyline
Dogs |
Breakeven
Percentage |
|
Moneyline
Dogs |
Breakeven
Percentage |
| +100 |
50.00% |
|
+205 |
32.78% |
| +105 |
48.78% |
|
+210 |
32.25% |
| +110 |
47.61% |
|
+215 |
31.74% |
| +115 |
46.51% |
|
+220 |
31.25% |
| +120 |
45.45% |
|
+225 |
30.76% |
| +125 |
44.44% |
|
+230 |
30.30% |
| +130 |
43.47% |
|
+235 |
29.85% |
| +135 |
42.55% |
|
+240 |
29.41% |
| +140 |
41.66% |
|
+245 |
28.98% |
| +145 |
40.81% |
|
+250 |
28.57% |
| +150 |
40.00% |
|
+255 |
28.16% |
| +155 |
39.21% |
|
+260 |
27.77% |
| +160 |
38.46% |
|
+265 |
27.37% |
| +165 |
37.73% |
|
+270 |
27.02% |
| +170 |
37.03% |
|
+275 |
26.66% |
| +175 |
36.36% |
|
+280 |
26.31% |
| +180 |
35.71% |
|
+285 |
25.97% |
| +185 |
35.08% |
|
+290 |
25.64% |
| +190 |
34.48% |
|
+295 |
25.31% |
| +195 |
33.89% |
|
+300 |
25.00% |
| +200 |
33.33% |
|
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Make sure you have a proven system when playing underdogs. Our MLB underdog formulas are proven winners.
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