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MLB Research, Stats, Formulas, & Predictions
- Since 2001 -

MLB Underdog Win Percentage

There is a definite advantage in playing baseball underdogs!

In the NFL and the NBA, against the standard 11/10 wagering odds against the spread, you have to win 52.4% just to break even. That might sound easy, but few people can breakeven on such odds in the long run.

The beauty of playing underdogs in Major League Baseball is that we can hit less than 50% and make a very good profit.

Given that it is difficult to profit in the NFL and the NBA at 11/10 odds over the long haul, imagine how difficult it is to profit in Major League Baseball over the course of a season, when playing favorites day in and day out. Consider the breakeven percentages for the following odds in baseball:

Moneyline
Favorite
Breakeven
Percentage
Moneyline
Favorite
Breakeven
Percentage
 -110
52.38%
-200
66.66% 
 -125
55.55%
-225
69.23% 
 -150
60.00%
-250
71.42% 
 -175
63.63%
-300
75.00% 

However, with underdogs in baseball, our Dogs Formula is guaranteed a profit even on days when it just hits 50%. Consider an actual day of plays for our Dogs Formula on May 8, 2004:

Our Dogs Formula's plays (wagering 1 unit per play) are in CAPS:

PHILADELPHIA +122 @ Arizona (won +1.22 units)
SAN FRANCISCO +105 @ Cincinnati (lost -1 unit)
MINNESOTA +188 @ Oakland (won 1.88 units)
DETROIT +158 @ Texas (lost -1 unit)

On this day, we went 2-2 (50% winning pct.), yet our profit was still 1.00 units (+ $100 for those wagering 1 steady unit at $100 per play)

Now imagine if you had taken the favorites in those games. Here's how you would have fared (again, wagering 1 unit per play):

Philadelphia @ ARIZONA -125 (lost -1 unit)
San Francisco @ CINCINNATI -115 (won .87 units)
Minnesota @ OAKLAND -215 (lost -1 unit)
DETROIT +158 @ TEXAS -178 (won .56 units)

Playing the favorites in those same games, you would have lost .57 units (- $57 for those wagering 1 steady unit at $100 per play)

Now, imagine if on that same day (May 5, 2004), you played some of the heavy favorites - the games that others might tell you are 'locks.' Here's is how you would have fared for that day:

Tampa Bay @ ANAHEIM -240 (won .41 units)
NY YANKEES -149 @ Seattle (won .67 units)
Colorado @ CHICAGO CUBS -260 (lost -1 unit)

In this example, you would have gone 2-1 (67% winning pct.) and still would have only won .08 units (+ $8 for those wagering 1 steady unit at $100 per play) playing the favorites.

So, on this day, our Dogs Formula won $100 in profits by going 2-2 (50%), and in our example, you would have won just $8 despite going 2-1 (67%) that day wagering on some teams that were 'locks.'

We're obviously more concerned with profit rather than winning percentage. And, in playing dogs, it requires a much lower winning percentage to profit over time. The chart below shows the winning percentages that are needed to breakeven in playing dogs at various moneylines.

Breakeven Percentages for Underdogs
As the chart shows, a much lower winning percentage is needed to profit when playing underdogs in baseball, as compared with playing favorites. Over time, it is much easier to profit, but only if you have a solid system for playing underdogs.

Moneyline
Dogs
Breakeven
Percentage
Moneyline
Dogs
Breakeven
Percentage
 +100
50.00%
+205
32.78% 
 +105
48.78%
+210
32.25% 
 +110
47.61%
+215
31.74% 
 +115
46.51%
+220
31.25% 
 +120
45.45%
+225
30.76% 
 +125
44.44%
+230
30.30% 
 +130
43.47%
+235
29.85% 
 +135
42.55%
+240
29.41% 
 +140
41.66%
+245
28.98% 
 +145
40.81%
+250
28.57% 
 +150
40.00%
+255
28.16% 
 +155
39.21%
+260
27.77% 
 +160
38.46%
+265
27.37% 
 +165
37.73%
+270
27.02% 
 +170
37.03%
+275
26.66% 
 +175
36.36%
+280
26.31% 
 +180
35.71%
+285
25.97% 
 +185
35.08%
+290
25.64% 
 +190
34.48%
+295
25.31% 
 +195
33.89%
+300
25.00% 
 +200
33.33%

Make sure you have a proven system when playing underdogs. Our MLB underdog formulas are proven winners.

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