Serious Statistical Research on Major League Baseball
- Providing Research Material Since 2001 -
Camden Yards, Baltimore
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Hot / Cold Streaks
The Importance of Consistency in Playing the Dogs Formula
In April 2004, we had to send this email message to our subscribers about handling the ups and downs of the long MLB Season after the Dogs Formula started the season
on quite a roll:
Baseball Subscribers,
There's a classic book entitled "Great Expectations," written the great Charles Dickens. And while we certainly have great expectations with our Dogs Formula, we want to address what we are seeing so far this year with respect to its early performance.
Our Dogs Formula has hit another new YTD high with 22.01 units. We have just completed Week 3 of the 2004 MLB Season. This is the fastest the Dogs Formula has hit the 22 unit mark. The Dogs Formula currently has a Profit on Turnover (POT) of roughly 22.5% for the 2004 Season. That is outrageous.
If nothing else, you have witnessed how hot this formula can get at times. We were in the hole 2 weeks ago, and we have seen a most decided hot stretch since then.
We hope you will remember this during the weeks when the formula gets hammered. We must reiterate that no formula in sports wagering continues to win at this kind of a clip. The formula would win about 190 units in 2004 if it kept winning at this pace. No formula wins 190 units on 1 unit wagers in a 6 month period. However, while we don't have a crystal ball, the formula's history indicates it will not be the last hot stretch that we see this season.
The problem with winning this much so early in the season (and trust us, it's the ONLY problem) is that it can set up a lot of false expectations. While we should all have 'great expectations,' sometimes when things are going TOO good, it can set up a set of false expectations about the future.
In the 2003 MLB Season, the Dogs Formula won slightly over 30 units in the month of July alone. Had you subscribed right before that stretch, you would have hit the jackpot in the first month of your subscription. Obviously, you would have had a false set of expectations about how many units on average the Dogs Formula wins per month. But, it is another example of how hot the formula can get at various points during the baseball season, and how important it is to play a steady wagering amount consistently each week. That way, you are sure to capitalize on such hot runs.
This does not mean that we expect the Dogs Formula to finish at +22 units or less this 2004 Season. Remember, we're just talking about the RATE of winning here, not the overall units we hope to win this season.
So we want to repeat what we mentioned last weekend: please keep your wagering amount the same, don't get overzealous, and keep your expectations in line with reality.
Cheers,
The Baseball Formula Team
The best way to play the Dogs Formula is play it consistently at 1 unit per play. Subscribers receive detailed instructions
on how to best play the formula when they subscribe. Included are money management recommendations.
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